ISRAELI ATTITUDES TOWARDS SHARON, ISRAEL, ARABS AND PEACE
Washington Watch
May 21, 2001
Dr. James J. Zogby ©
President
Arab American Institute
Months of sustained conflict have deepened the rift between Israel’s Arab and Jewish citizens and intensified the political malaise felt by Israelis in general.
These are some of the findings of a recent Zogby International (ZI) poll. The poll was conducted from May 6 to May 9 and was commissioned by Abu Dhabi TV (ADTV). The poll interviewed 600 Israeli voters and had a margin of error of +/- 4 percent. In order to obtain a more detailed assessment of the views of Israeli Arab voters, an additional sample of 220 Arabs was also conducted.
Israelis may have voted in Ariel Sharon as Prime Minister in February of 2001, but four months later they do not appear to be pleased by their choice.
I. Dissatisfaction with Prime Minister Sharon
Israeli voters do not give Sharon high marks on his overall performance as Prime Minister. His negative job performance rating is twice as high as his positive rating. (33.5 negative to 61.5 positive). Arab voters are almost unanimous in their rejection of the Prime Minister, one percent positive to 97.5 negative, but Jewish voters also give him low marks (only 39 percent positive to 55.5 percent negative). Only Likud voters give Sharon a slightly more positive the negative rating, and even these voters from the Prime Minister’s own party are almost evenly split in their assessment of his job performance (51 percent positive to 45 percent negative).
This dissatisfaction with the Prime Minister can also be seen in the low percentage of voters who indicate support for his reelection. When the percentage of support for a sitting elected official is lower than 50 percent it is usually a sign of public displeasure. A positive rating below 40 percent is an indication of a serious political problem. In the Zogby/ADTV poll only 36.5 percent of all Israeli voters say Sharon deserves reelection. This represents a significant decline from the support he received in
February 2001. Among Jewish voters, Sharon has slipped over 10 percent. Arabs are almost unanimous in rejecting him, with 94 percent saying he does not deserve reelection.
Another indication of voter dissatisfaction can be found in their response to the question “is the country moving in the right or wrong direction?” While Sharon’s numbers are only slightly better than those received by Barak in February 2001, still today only 34.5 percent of Israeli voters believe that Sharon is leading the country in the right direction. Fifty percent of Israelis say the country is moving in the wrong direction.
And when asked whether or not Israel, under Prime Minister Sharon’s leadership, was moving closer to or further away from peace, voters indicate that the country has not moved toward peace. Only 15.5 percent of all Israelis say that Sharon is heading toward peace. This negative assessment holds true for Jews as well as Arabs. Among Jewish voters, only 18 percent say Sharon is leading toward peace, while 93 percent of Arab voters say that he is leading the country further away from peace.
II. Arab/Jewish Relations
Arab voters have grown increasingly alienated with successive Israeli governments. Many analysts believe that it was Arab disenchantment with then Prime Minister Peres resulting from his bombing of Lebanon that caused almost 100,000 Arabs to cast a blank ballot in the 1996 election. Arab anger grew more intense in 2000 after 13 Israeli Arab citizens were killed by Israeli soldiers during Arab demonstrations in support of the Palestinian Intifada. In the 2001 election, it appears that more than three-fourths of all Arab voters either cast a blank ballot or did not vote at all.
While, in the past, Israeli Arabs have been somewhat diverse in their political views, this Zogby/ADTV poll now shows this group to be remarkably unified.
any closer toward a restoration of the key issues that are at the core of the conflict.
For comments or information, contact <jzogby@aaiusa.org> or <aai@aaiusa.org>.