2005 ARAB ATTITUDES TOWARDS US: GOOD NEWS & BAD NEWS
Washington Watch
November 7, 2005
Dr. James J. Zogby ©
President
Arab American Institute
Arab attitudes toward the United States have somewhat improved in the past year. Having plummeted to a dangerous low point in mid-2004, favorable ratings of the US are now back to their still low, but better, 2002 level.
This was one finding from a six nation poll conducted during October of 2005. The Zogby International (ZI) poll was commissioned by the Arab American Institute (AAI). The AAI/ZI poll surveyed over 3,600 Arabs in Morocco, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, Lebanon, and Jordan.
What the AAI/ZI study shows is that about one third of Moroccans, Jordanians, Lebanese, and Emiratis now have favorable attitudes of America. Only in Saudi Arabia and Egypt do positive attitudes remain in the low range (Saudi Arabia 9% and Egypt 14%). But in all six countries surveyed, favorable ratings are up from 2004 and at the levels they were in 2002.
Table 1Attitudes Toward America, 2005
EgyptSaudi ArabiaMorocco200520042002200520042002200520042002Favorable14n/a159412341138Unfavorable85n/a76899489648861JordanUnited Arab EmiratesLebanon200520042002200520042002200520042002Favorable331534281411322026Unfavorable637861697387666990
That’s the good news. There’s bad news as well. When the ratings given to the US are compared with those given to the other three countries covered in the poll (China, Russia, and India), the US comes in last place, with China scoring significantly higher in most of the six Arab countries surveyed.
Table 2
Attitudes Toward China, India, Russia, 2005
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Morocco
Jordan
United Arab Emirates
Lebanon
China
70/15*
40/41
52/38
68/26
36/44
46/25
India
50/19
39/43
39/47
55/39
40/44
38/30
Russia
28/41
21/62
30/55
55/35
30/47
45/33
* favorable/unfavorable
Additionally, it appears that the favorable attitudes toward the US are quite soft, while negative attitudes appear to have hardened. In response to a separate question, those with negative attitudes toward the US report that those attitudes actually worsened in the past year. Surprisingly, in response to this same question, those who now report having a favorable view of the US do not indicate feeling better about the US.
As in earlier polls, it is clear that it is American policy in the region which drives the negative attitude. When respondents were asked to identify the issues that most shaped their attitudes towards the US, major factors they identified are the war in Iraq (the number one issue in all six countries) and American treatment of Arab and Muslims (the number two concern in all six countries).
Table 3
Most Important Factor in Determining Attitudes Towards US
Egypt
Saudi Arabia
Morocco
Jordan
United Arab Emirates
Lebanon
Iraq
57
49
45
48
33
34
Democracy
4
9
2
6
12
16
Arab-Israeli conflict
8
8
8
13
12
19
US treatment of Arabs and Muslims
28
32
40
28
32
22
Lebanon Breakdown by Religion, 2005
Muslim
Christian
Iraq
Democracy
9
30
Arab-Israeli conflict
US treatment of Arabs and Muslims
30
8
On the other hand, the Bush Administration’s advocacy of democracy, the cornerstone of their policy toward the Middle East, appears to have resonated only among Christian Lebanese, who are the only sub-group to give the US an overall positive rating (57% favorable-39% unfavorable). Lebanese Muslims, both Sunni and Shia combined, give the US a strong negative rating of 14% favorable versus 80% unfavorable. In Egypt and Saudi Arabia, two countries which have been targeted for attention by US democracy initiatives, this advocacy won little support. In Egypt, for example, only 4% indicated that the “Bush Administration’s promotion of democracy determined their attitudes toward the US,” with most of them reporting that this effort soured their attitude toward the US. In Saudi Arabia, of the 9% who were impacted by the Administration’s advocacy for democratic reform, only one-third of this group said they reacted positively to this US effort. In other words, most Egyptians and Saudis appear to have reacted negatively to what they appear to perceive as improper meddling in their internal affairs. This result echoes another finding from our 2004 poll which shows that most Arabs did not want US involvement in their domestic politics.
The clear and sizable lesson emerging from this 2005 AAI/ZI Arab survey is that attitudes toward the US, though better, remain troubled and shaped by US policies that negatively impact the region. The promotion of democracy and reform, while appealing to some small groups, continue to be trumped by the war in Iraq and the more general perceptions of America’s poor treatment of Arabs and Muslims.
For comments or information, contact jzogby@aaiusa.org or HYPERLINK "http://www.aaiusa.org" http://www.aaiusa.org