Can This Israeli-Palestinian Ceasefire Bring Peace?
Washington Watch
January 27, 2024
Dr. James J. Zogby ©
President
Arab American Institute
There are two realities that must be confronted in any consideration of “What’s next for Gaza?” The first is that it would be naïve and risky to put too much faith in this current ceasefire. The second is that failing to understand the true human toll of this war is dangerously insensitive—it’s far greater than the tens of thousands of Palestinians who have been killed and/or severely wounded by Israeli forces.
The pause in Israel’s bombing of Gaza is, of course, a welcome development. It has provided Palestinians some amount of relief, the opportunity to grieve, and, for some, the chance to attempt to trek northward, assess the damage to their bombed-out neighborhoods, and dig through the rubble to find the bodies of missing family members. The pause has also allowed for a huge influx of food and aid supplies into Gaza and the passage of critically wounded Palestinians to Egypt for treatment.
This was the good news about the pause. The bad news is that the agreement is weak, with no enforcement mechanism. The original plan offered by President Biden over six months ago included three phases with the parties agreeing to all three from the outset.
What we’re learning from the Israeli press is that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been assuring his supporters that he will only honor the first phase and will resume the bombing when it’s over. He will not withdraw Israeli forces from Gaza, nor allow Palestinian governance in Gaza that politically connects that area with the West Bank.
The administrations of Presidents Biden and Trump have chosen to ignore Netanyahu’s intentions in order to make a show of their “success.”
Biden has been providing support and cover for the Israeli leader from the beginning of the conflict. From October 2023 until leaving the White House, Biden and co. supported Netanyahu’s goals and gave him free rein. Despite the US president’s insistence that he had been strenuously pursuing a ceasefire for half a year, there is clear evidence that the administration knew that Netanyahu wouldn’t agree to a ceasefire and yet continued to publicly claim that Israel supported one and that Hamas was the major obstacle. The charade continues with this agreement because even though Biden knows the ceasefire is of limited duration, he took the “PR victory” to end his term in office.
The pause provided much the same for incoming President Donald Trump—an early show of his ability to solve a problem that haunted his predecessor. That the ceasefire won’t last more than a few months doesn’t matter. Forever the showman, what matters for Trump is the show at the moment: a good photo-op and a boost in ratings. It doesn’t matter to him if down the road the ceasefire doesn’t last; most folks will have forgotten it by then.
It should be clear that neither this Israeli government or any of its possible successors, nor the Trump administration or any of its possible successors have any interest in a just solution to the conflict. And so, even setting aside the matter of the ceasefire, despite plans afoot to lay out a path toward peace starting with an interim government in Gaza, there doesn’t appear to be any real buy-in from the Israelis. Nor will the US pressure Israel to take the steps needed to move peace forward.
The equally worrisome reality that is cause for concern is that wars have consequences that last long after the bombs stop falling. Often unforeseen, they can lay dormant for years like a virus before manifesting themselves. Because neither the Israelis nor their American enablers ever understood Palestinians’ humanity, they can’t fathom the long-term impact this disastrous war is having and will continue to have on its survivors.
The counts are staggering: 47,000 dead, 116,000 wounded, as many as 33,000 with permanent disabilities, an estimated 50,000 missing and unaccounted for, 90% of the population (almost 1.9 million) forced to relocate with most of them now homeless because their previous residences have been destroyed, and 34,000 children orphaned with no surviving family members.
We are told that it may take two decades to clear the rubble and unexploded ordinance in Gaza and then years more to rebuild. But healing the wounds of war that will continues to plague the survivors will take much longer. The switch can be flipped to end the bombs, but the impact of this devastating war but will continue to take its toll for more than another generation. There will be multiple types of psychological disorders like trauma, anxiety, severe depression, and internalized violence leading to self-hurt or striking out at others.
Compounding this pain is the shock of seeing the rubble of what had been their homes and ruins of what had been their communities. Over the decades it will take to clear and rebuild, where are Palestinians to go? It’s not as if the Israelis will look with compassion on these survivors of their genocidal war. Palestinians rightly fear that if they leave what is left to them in Palestine, the Israelis will not let them return. Neither the US nor the Israelis are prepared to ensure the counseling and care needed to heal the wounds of this war will be available to this community of victims. The future is, therefore, uncertain, but leaning toward bleak.
