If the Iran War Continues, What Will Trump Do?

Washington Watch

April 13th, 2026

Dr. James J. Zogby ©

President

Arab American Institute

With the apparent collapse of the US talks with Iran, President Donald Trump finds himself in a box with no easy way out. Polls are showing that key elements of his winning electoral coalition are growing weary of the war and frustrated with its domestic consequences. As we approach the midterm elections, Republicans in Congress are also nervous about how voters may react when they go to the polls.

There are several Republican-related groups to consider - each with concerns of their own. The establishment Republican elites wanted one thing from President Trump: smaller government with lower taxes. Because Trump never fit the mold of a true conservative, given his flamboyant and, at times, outrageous behaviors, these more traditional conservatives were initially hesitant to embrace Trump’s candidacy. However, when he reduced regulations on their industries, lowered their taxes, and began to reduce government outlays for social programs while increasing defense expenditures, they came on board.

The religious conservatives were also initially concerned that Trump’s own personal immoral behavior and his past positions on a range of “social issues” might not be in sync with their “traditional values” agenda. Here too he has mollified concerns by issuing Executive Orders and appointing federal judges that support the Christian conservatives’ program.

Most consequential to this president’s success is the group now referred to as MAGA (“Make America Great Again”) supporters - that is the diverse collection of voters who have hitched their hopes to President Trump’s success. Many of these voters had previously identified as Democrats. They are folks who feel left behind by the changing economy, have lost hope that they or their children can achieve the American dream, and feel abandoned by policymakers in Washington. They embraced Donald Trump when he told them he understood their pain and that he alone could fix what was wrong by reordering our governmental priorities, enabling both America and their communities and families to “be great again.”

Central to his campaign were promises to end expenditures on “endless wars” and by prioritizing the needs of everyday Americans by making their lives more affordable. Because these Republican voters have been so trusting of the President’s performance - even in instances where it required them to suspend their better judgment - polls showed that 80% of Republicans and self-identified MAGA voters were initially overwhelmingly with the President at the start of the Iran war. That is no longer the case. The most recent polls now show the percent of Republicans who are opposed to this war has risen from 11% to over 30%.

One reason for this may be that the administration had made it appear that this conflict would be over quickly and decisively. With hostilities now into a second month and gas prices rising, impacting a number of downstream costs, voters are becoming anxious. Most recent polls show that more than 50% of MAGA voters blame the war for the increase in gas prices.

In a related matter, while traditional conservatives and Neoconservatives celebrated the President’s budget - with massive increases in defense spending and reductions in “discretionary spending” on social spending, MAGA voters haven’t digested what that translates to for them. Little noticed were President Trump’s follow-up comments that the federal government could no longer afford to spend on day care, Medicare, and food benefits to low-income families, saying,

“(We can’t) spend any money for daycare because the United States can’t take care of daycare. We’re a big country. We have 50 states we have all these other people. We’re fighting wars. It’s not possible for us to take care of daycare, Medicaid, Medicare, all these individual things.”

There isn’t any polling yet on these issues, but it is precisely low- and middle-income households- who make up the bulk of MAGA voters - who will be affected by these cuts, if Congress allows them to occur. They are the voters who require affordable day care to allow both partners to work. They are the senior citizens who depend on Medicare to allow them to receive the health care they need. And they are the farmers who benefit from food subsidy programs that provide them with a guaranteed market for their products.

And so, the President is in a box with no good way out. He is being pressured by his base and Republicans running for office in competitive districts to find a way to end this war before more voters turn against them, while at the same time he is being urged by his regional allies not to walk away and leaving a mess in his wake. The choice he makes will be fateful.