I’m Skeptical About the Israel/Lebanon Peace Deal

Washington Watch

December 2, 2024

Dr. James J. Zogby © 

President 

Arab American Institute

This past week, Israeli, Lebanese, and US leaders were busy patting themselves on the back announcing the completion of an Israeli/Lebanese ceasefire agreement. The Israeli Prime Minister crowed about Israel victorious and now the unquestioned dominant force throughout the Middle East. Hezbollah declared a “divine victory” greater than the one they achieved in 2006. Meanwhile, US leaders were congratulating themselves for their leadership in a settlement they hoped would “advance broader peace and prosperity in the region.” 

To say I’m skeptical about all of this is an understatement. At least for now, the Lebanese will have some respite from Israel’s relentless bombings. And Israeli forces will begin to withdraw from the south of the country. Nevertheless, I’m not uncorking the champagne to celebrate. Too many have died, too much bitterness has been sown, no lessons have been learned, and too many issues remain unresolved. There will be, as there always is, a reckoning for the consequences of this war. 

The extensive physical damage to Lebanon and its people is staggering. Almost 4,000 dead and many thousands were more wounded. International agencies report that 1.3 million were forced to flee from their homes—some forced to do so more than once—and upwards of 100,000 homes have been destroyed either by bombings or bulldozing of entire areas by Israeli forces in their “cleansing” operations in the border villages.  

In his announcement of the ceasefire, President Biden said that now Israelis and Lebanese can return to their homes—except that, for hundreds of thousands of Lebanese, their homes no longer exist.  And it’s important to acknowledge that the ceasefire is tentative, and its terms are decidedly lopsided.  

Once again, as they did in 2006, Hezbollah miscalculated. It may have seemed honorable to demonstrate solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza. But they were kicking the hornets’ nest of a foe whose ruthlessness knows no limits and faces no restraints. Israel responded with complete impunity, violating all of the norms of international law and civilized behavior. 

At this point, Hezbollah has no doubt been weakened. They will be forced to relocate north of the Litani River and have lost their claim to be a feared deterrent against Israeli dominance. It remains to be seen to what extent they will be able to use their armed presence as the pretorian guard protecting the ancien regime in Lebanon.  

Ceasefire or no ceasefire, Lebanon has internal problems that must be addressed, but which now, in the aftermath of this war, are less likely to be. 

It’s true that Hezbollah plays a role in Iran’s regional strategy. But it is wrong to see it only in that light. What gave birth to this movement were problems internal to Lebanon. Hezbollah represents an aggrieved Shi’a community that had long felt that it had been dealt the short end of the stick in Lebanese affairs. They suffered the consequences of Israel’s war with the PLO at the end of which their villages were occupied by the Israeli military for more than two decades. With Israel being forced to end its occupation in 2000, Hezbollah’s stature grew. 

While no precise demographic figures exist, most estimates place the Shi’a community as Lebanon’s largest sectarian grouping. They harbor a deep sense of disenfranchisement and are unwilling, especially after what they have recently endured, to accept a subordinate status. 

So while it’s important, as some say, for Lebanon to “get its act together” and elect a new president and establish a government. That’s not nearly enough. There must be reform and an end to the corrupt, outmoded sectarian system. Whether one blames Hezbollah for this war or not, if real reform isn’t implemented, the inequities of Lebanon’s sectarian divisions will cause tensions and disruptions that will continue to place the country’s recovery at risk.   

It was both frightening and disturbing to listen to Netanyahu crowing about his great successes in defying world opinion and winning, as he described it, against all of Israel’s foes. He went further with the threat of continuing to use Israel’s unmatched military might to ensure Israel’s security and dominance. But here too there is a reckoning that must be addressed.  

As we have learned from past wars, there are wounds that do not heal. Israel may be feared, but it is hated more than ever. Palestinians and many Lebanese, and Arabs in general, are now more hostile to Israel than before these wars took their tolls.  

As of now, Netanyahu and the majority of Israelis have learned no lessons at all. Their blind self-righteousness emboldened by US support has metastasized into a cancerous sense of impunity. They continue their genocidal campaign in Gaza hell-bent on the destruction of Hamas. But it is increasingly clear that isn’t their only goal—which is to liquidate the Palestinian presence in most of Gaza and establish a permanent regime there. In the West Bank and East Jerusalem, the Israelis are also determined to subdue and annex and expand their settlement presence. 

Israel’s military might seem dominant, but Israelis aren’t safer. Even now they daily fall victim to resistance born of anger at their brutal occupation policies. They will not be secure or achieve broader regional acceptance until they change. And given the hold the far-right has over Israeli politics, change isn’t coming any time soon.  

As distressing as these failures of the Lebanese and Israeli leaderships may be, those of US policymakers are worse as they bear significant responsibility for what has transpired not just over the past year. For decades, the US turned a blind eye to Israeli settlement expansion, their policies that sabotaged the peace process, contributed to the collapse of Palestinian governance and the rise of Hamas, the subjugation of the Palestinian people, and the empowerment of Israel’s extremist right-wing. Instead of accepting paternity for this mess that we helped birth, we have now armed Israel to the teeth and covered for its crimes in international fora.  

The “deal” we negotiated between Israel and Lebanon addresses none of the root causes of conflict and only gives Israel a freer hand to pursue its goal of a “pax Israelica”—which is sure to produce greater conflict, not the hoped broader regional peace.