Reality Check on Saudi-Israel Normalization

Washington Watch

August 21, 2023

Dr. James J. Zogby © 

President 

Arab American Institute

There has been a great deal of commentary about a possible US-engineered Saudi-Israel normalization agreement: what it would actually do; whom it might benefit; and, most importantly, whether any such arrangement is even possible given current political realities in the US and Israel. A Saudi-Israel agreement would, no doubt, be consequential, but to introduce a touch of reality, let’s look at some of the exaggerated claims that have been made.  

This will be end of the Arab-Israeli conflict. 

It most decidedly will not. Since the convening of the Madrid Peace Conference and culminating with unanimous Arab League endorsement of the Arab Peace Initiative, Arabs have made it clear that the conflict is not existential. The central issue of concern has always been Palestinian rights.  

Even in countries that have made peace with Israel, public opinion indicates that normalization is desirable and that their support rests on the belief that engagement with Israel may give their governments more leverage to press for an end to violence and for Palestinian rights. Despite regional weariness with this conflict, Arab leaders and their publics still react with outrage when Israel commits new atrocities or violates Muslim rights in Jerusalem.  

This will change the map of the Middle East. 

The map of the Middle East has already changed. For all intents and purposes, the once powerful military-led “Republics” of the Levantine and North Africa have lost their dominance in the Arab world, with leadership shifting southward to the Arab Gulf states.  

Saudi Arabia and UAE, for example, are playing transnational roles across the region as well as with global powers. No longer allowing their policies to be solely directed by the US, Saudi Arabia and the UAE are deepening economic ties with China, remaining neutral on Ukraine, and reopening diplomatic ties with Iran. In pursuit of their ambitious economic development and societal goals, both Gulf powers are seeking regional stability and calm. This is how they are working to change the map of the Middle East.  

Israel and the US apparently want to turn back the clock from this changing Middle East with the goal of offsetting China’s growing role by swinging Saudi Arabia and the UAE back into an exclusive US orbit and creating a united front to challenge Iran.   

This is a disaster for the Palestinians.  

A Saudi-Israel normalization would have no consequential impact on the plight of the Palestinians. In reality, Arab states have limited leverage over Israeli behavior. Agreements Israel made in the lead-up to the Madrid Conference made no difference, neither did the Oslo Accords, the Arab Peace Initiative, or the Abrahamic Accords. Israel continues to gobble up Palestinian land, build new settlements, and brutally violate Palestinian rights. The only address that matters in changing Israeli behavior is in Washington. If the US really wanted to make Arab-Israeli peace a reality, it would use its diplomatic and political capital to do so.  

If Saudi Arabia holds out for terms that include a real end to the oppressive occupation and if the US is intent on pushing this process forward, the entire effort might have a positive impact on the Palestinian future. If, however, the normalization process moves forward without anything positive for Palestinians, it wouldn’t be a disaster—it would be same old, same old.  

This spells the end of the two-state solution. 

Normalization would not spell the end of the two-state solution because that ship has already sailed. There is no conceivable government that can be formed in Israel, now or in the foreseeable future, that would allow for anything close to the minimum requirements of an independent, sovereign, viable Palestinian state.  

At this point, the calls for a Palestinian “state” come from those who refuse to recognize the realities created by Israel’s massive settlement and Jewish-only infrastructure that have made real Palestinian independence and sovereignty impossible. Refusing to accept this and falling back on the mantra of “support for the two-state solution” may make them feel good, but it’s based less on reality and more on wish-fulfillment and the desire for absolution.  

With Palestinian Arabs comprising slightly more than one-half of the population between the Jordan River and the Mediterranean Sea, with Palestinians increasingly integrated into the Israeli economy, with Israeli settlements, infrastructure, “security zones,” checkpoints, and with Israeli Apartheid policies in place, we are in for a long hard slog forward toward creating a unitary democratic state with equal rights for all.  

This will give Biden a much-needed victory before the 2024 elections.  

While it is doubtful that anything close to the kind of Saudi-Israel normalization being touted in the US and Israeli press can occur, an agreement of any sort will not add five votes to the Biden column in 2024. Democrats and Republicans are deeply polarized, and independent swing voters won’t be moved foreign policy issues—except for Ukraine. Jewish voters will overwhelmingly support the Democratic nominee because of the domestic policies embraced by the GOP. And while Jewish voters may be concerned with the future of Israel, because of their growing unease with the orientation of the current Israeli government, they will not be impressed with any White House celebration that puts Netanyahu center stage.   

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All of this begs the question as to whether or not any form of Saudi-Israel normalization can even happen given current Israeli and American politics. This topic deserves a more complete discussion, but it should suffice to say that as much as Israel may want an agreement, leaders in Netanyahu’s coalition and leaders of the opposition have made it clear that they are unwilling to agree to Saudi Arabia’s insistence to process nuclear materials and their desire to purchase advanced military equipment from the US. Nor are any government or opposition figures in Israel willing to entertain even the most modest concessions regarding Palestinian rights.  

While Republicans would be loath to provide President Biden with support for any form of agreement that would enhance his election year standing, the President will also find it difficult to find support within his own party for concessions to Saudi Arabia on nuclear or increased sales of military hardware.  

Bottom line: It’s time to end the hyperventilating over the prospects of a Saudi-Israel normalization agreement. The better approach is for the US to embrace the new realities of a changing Middle East in which Israel is an outlier and for the US to accept its responsibility as the enabler of the Israeli occupation and its Apartheid system.